Heavy rainfall, flooding, severe thunderstorms on tap this week

(From the National Weather Service)

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
243 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
  AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

  STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
  MPH OCCURRING ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 49 AND NORTH
  OF HIGHWAY 54.

  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY PRIMARILY
  ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. FIRES IN OPEN GRASSLAND AREAS WILL
  HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY GROW AND SPREAD.

  A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
  THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
  EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
  FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI THEN TRACK
  EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
  WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
  ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND ONLY
  GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATER THIS
  EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  A SLOW MOVING...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
  FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM LATE
  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY
  NIGHT COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
  MISSOURI.

  A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN
  CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
  TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM
  WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
  NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
  HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  IN LOCATIONS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. AS IS
  THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...CONFIDENCE
  REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF
  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.