Elevated tornado risk for Joplin, southwest Missouri, today, tonight

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
439 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

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Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
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439 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Gusty southerly winds will develop today behind a passing
  warm front with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected.

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning,
  especially across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
  A few of these storms may produce hail to the size of
  quarters and locally damaging wind gusts.

  Thunderstorms will then increase in coverage this afternoon
  and early this this evening, including the potential for
  supercell thunderstorms. Hail up to two inches in diameter,
  damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with any
  supercells. The threat for supercell tornadoes will become
  elevated from late this afternoon into this evening as low
  level wind shear increases.

  The thunderstorms are then expected to congeal into a squall
  line this evening and push east across the area from later
  this evening into the overnight period. This will include a
  threat for damaging winds to 70 mph and tornadoes. Portions
  of the squall line which bow out towards the northeast will
  have an enhanced tornado threat.

  An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for today and
  tonight as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  The potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding will
  then continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
  includes the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and
  isolated tornadoes. Details regarding the location and
  timing of these potential hazards will become better known
  later today and tonight.

  The risk for thunderstorms will then persist into Thursday
  and Friday. The potential for severe storms and flooding is
  unclear at this time. There are then limited chances for
  thunderstorms early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight across the
  entire outlook area.